Job market rebounds; hiring sentiment seen picking up 1st time in Modi era in Q2

For the first time in the Narendra Modi-era is the job market seeing an uptick in the hiring sentiment in the July-September quarter, after a continuous fall for at least four years. The July-September period (Q2) is often seen as a subdued quarter for the job market as the construction and manufacturing sectors slow down due to the monsoon, seasonal activities and festivities.

The net employment outlook in the second quarter of this year is 17%, higher than last year same quarter’s 15%, ManpowerGroup employment outlook survey showed. This is for the first time since 2014 that the second quarter is seeing a rebound in hiring sentiment, an analysis of ManpowerGroup forecast data show.

The July-September period last year, which was an immediate quarter after the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), was the least optimistic quarter since 2005, data from the survey showed.

“Indian employers report steady hiring plans for the next three months,” ManpowerGroup said, adding that the large employers have strongest hiring plans. Large employers report the strongest hiring plans with a net employment outlook of 18%, up from 2 percentage points from last year, while outlooks reported in both the medium-and-small-sized categories are 15%, down 2 percentage points in the small-sized category and same in the medium-sized category.

Sector-wise forecast:

The employment outlook is highest in the services sector and the wholesale, retail and trade, with 20% positive sentiment, followed by public administration and education with 18% hiring sentiment.

In comparison with the third quarter of 2017, hiring plans are 4 percentage points stronger in both the finance, insurance and real estate sector and the manufacturing sector, while services sector employers report an increase of 3 percentage points.

Region-wise forecast:

Hiring intentions are 7 percentage points stronger in two regions – the East and the West when compared with this time one year ago. Elsewhere, employers report relatively stable hiring plans in the North, but the outlook for the South declines by 3 percentage points, the survey stated.